When Do Alliances Form and Whom Do Adversaries Attack?

Journal article

Shiyan Cao

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Cao, S. When Do Alliances Form and Whom Do Adversaries Attack?

Chicago/Turabian Click to copy
Cao, Shiyan. “When Do Alliances Form and Whom Do Adversaries Attack?” (n.d.).

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Cao, Shiyan. When Do Alliances Form and Whom Do Adversaries Attack?

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@article{shiyan-a,
  title = {When Do Alliances Form and Whom Do Adversaries Attack?},
  author = {Cao, Shiyan}
}

Inspired by the credibility of NATO's mutual defense commitment, this project studies when military alliances can be sustained without external enforcement. I develop a dynamic model in which countries form self-enforcing alliances by committing to assist one another after an attack. Preliminary results show that alliance formation depends non-monotonically on the probability of attack and countries' relative military capabilities. Ongoing work introduces a strategic attacker that chooses whether to attack an alliance member or a non-member, generating new insights into alliance formation, deterrence, and the strategic selection of military targets.